American Fortune Life

The U.S. stock market rebounded after Andy started buying the U.S. at the bottom in mid-March. Although there were many twists and turns in the process, it was considered to be a BO strong rebound. However, after entering June, the U.S. stock market began to rebound. Down again.

Some analysts have even begun to expect a longer pullback in stocks, especially as the earnings season moves forward and companies report earnings that disappoint investors.

U.S. and European stock markets closed lower on Friday as consumer sentiment fell short of expectations. So far, US and European stock markets have fallen for 4 consecutive weeks.

Earnings warnings from listed companies and news of a drop in U.S. consumer confidence underscored concerns about the economic recovery and the possibility of weak second-quarter earnings. In addition, oil prices continued to decline, with U.S. crude oil futures falling below $60, triggering investors to sell some energy stocks.

"Although there are some positive news, the main concern is that we are still in recession." Arvitel calmly explained to Andy the current problems facing the US financial market.

"According to some data reflecting deflation obtained by think tanks, although commodity prices have fallen, demand has not rebounded, inventories have gradually decreased and unemployment has continued to rise.

The S\u0026P 500 index once rose by about 40% from its 12-year low in mid-March, but the index fell by 7% from its high on June 12. It is expected that the stock market will continue to fall for a period of time in the future, especially As the earnings season moved forward, companies reported results that disappointed investors.

The trading volume of the New York Stock Exchange last Friday can also explain some problems. It is very light, only more than 900 million shares, which is far lower than the estimated daily average trading volume of 1.5 billion shares last year. The number of homes is. "

Listening to Alvitt's detailed introduction of various data and analysis to himself, Andy roughly browsed the financial data in his hand, and nodded in satisfaction. Compared with the money he earned by buying bottoms, he didn't care about the drop. Besides, the funds invested in stock index futures have been withdrawn a long time ago. Now most of his holdings are blue-chip stocks, and he is not going to move in a short time, so he doesn't care about short-term ups and downs.

"Since the shock has receded, let's stay the same." Andy closed the document in his hand and put it on the desk beside him. He needs to go back and check these financial data carefully. They are related to his own assets. He will not be sloppy, even if he very much believes that his think tank will not cheat him, but he must know it well.

"By the way, I just took advantage of the opportunity of adjustment to continue to repurchase Starbucks shares. My final idea is to complete the holding of more than 50% of Starbucks' shares and completely control it. I value the future of Starbucks very much."

"The repurchase of Starbucks shares has never stopped. I handed over this work to Bardstone. After all, they can use short-term operations to launder funds, and they can control the price of accumulation very well to avoid too much BO in the stock price. Move, causing some unnecessary troubles." Alvit Liehui reported.

Andy nodded, pondered for a while, looked at Al with a serious expression and asked, "Al, what do you think of the retail industry? It's supermarkets, convenience stores."

Hearing his boss asked about this industry, Alvetrie frowned and began to think quickly. Andy didn't rush to interrupt, but quietly waited for his answer.

"The competition in the retail industry is very fierce, especially the barriers to entry are not high. Therefore, among the thousands of retail companies, there are not many truly high-profit companies. In particular, the rise of e-commerce has had a huge impact on the traditional retail industry. Sears, the third largest retailer,

Large department store chains J.C. Penney and Macy's have seen their share prices halved during the financial crisis. Correspondingly, is the rapid development of e-commerce giant Amazon.

Under the background of the impact of e-commerce and the closure of traditional retail stores, I don't think that entering the retail industry will bring much benefit to the boss. The loss outweighs the gain, after all, the retail industry is not an industry that can see profits in the short term. "

Hearing Al's analysis and opposing suggestions, the expression on Andy's face didn't change much. It seemed that he had been mentally prepared and guessed Al's attitude towards this matter.

In fact, when he entered the retail industry, he already had this idea when he stayed in the footbath. The longevity of the 7-11 convenience store really made him jealous. Although the memory of his previous life stayed in the heyday of e-commerce, But as his vision and knowledge grew, he also came up with a little different idea.

We are currently in the booming stage of Internet e-commerce, and then we will usher in the era of mobile Internet, and the online + offline model is bound to be a major trend in the future, and offline sales will inevitably return.

In fact, this is an inevitability of commercial development. When the e-commerce industry breaks away from the barbaric era and begins to develop steadily, and the competition among e-commerce companies becomes normalized, the e-commerce market will inevitably become partially saturated. The most direct impact of e-commerce market saturation is the decline in market profitability. Coupled with the increase in consumer willingness and offline profitability, offline sales will also become a common trend.

In fact, the retail industry has not undergone essential changes so far. The distinction between old and new retail is actually the carrier of retail and the objects of retail are constantly evolving.

To put it bluntly, the online and offline e-commerce model mainly relies on price and traffic bonuses. The cost of traffic has been greatly reduced with the huge Internet demographic dividend, and online platforms have sacrificed gross profits to grab users. But with the passage of time, when one day, both merchants and consumers tend to be saturated, the dividend of traffic no longer exists. The cost and gross profit of online e-commerce companies are almost the same as those of offline stores. When the online and offline prices are similar and the advantages of e-commerce companies no longer exist, human beings will once again dominate the transaction experience completed in person.

Don't brag about what Internet thinking is used to operate e-commerce from accurate recommendation to user analysis, and use data to arm it. To put it bluntly, when the price is the same, no thinking is useless, and no data is useless. When the price is similar, offline Experiential consumption is the most fundamental and familiar consumption mode. Instead of tedious waiting, unknown product quality, and troublesome returns and exchanges, people will be more willing to see and touch the products, and feel happier!

Of course, the premise of everything is that there is not much difference in price.

The core of the retail industry is nothing more than cost and efficiency. When the cost of online and offline comes to the same starting line, when the offline exhausts all means to improve efficiency and breaks the game, life online will be sad.

Well, it is still a bit far away to say these things now, and it will take at least ten to fifteen years before the return of offline sales. After all, there is still a mobile Internet era that has just started, and the cold winter of offline sales is the current reality. From the perspective of the macro situation, the current retail industry is indeed quite sluggish, and physical stores around the world have encountered wave after wave of store closures.

"In the stock market investment ratio that the think tank put out at the beginning, 3% of Costco and 1% of Wal-Mart accounted for it. I understand that Wal-Mart is the largest retailer in the United States after all. This Costco was at that time The introduction is that it relies on membership fees to make money, and the price difference of selling products can be very low, and some products are even sold with a loss-making thinking. Is that right?" Andy looked at Alvitley and asked.

"Yes, Costco is the world's largest chain of membership-only warehouse-style mass merchandise stores. This year, it has also become the third-ranked retailer in the United States. Its operating characteristics are to provide high-quality goods at low prices, and to compete Than fewer merchandise items while charging members an annual fee.

Costco only provided services to small businesses at first, but later found that it would bring greater benefits to the company if it selectively provided services to some non-corporate individual members.

At present, Costco operates more than 452 stores all over the world, which are distributed in seven countries. There is no doubt that Costco is the leader of warehouse wholesale stores.

What our think tank values ​​is that membership is the foundation of all Costco's business logic. Whether it is to use membership fees to support operations, or to reduce costs with large purchases, a considerable number of members is required. This is a long process, accumulating members and cultivating brands. The huge and loyal member group is the most solid barrier for Costco.

That's why we decided to suggest to the boss to buy its shares. Its growth space is very large. . . "

"Then buy it!" Andy said suddenly with bright eyes, which became extremely sharp.

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