American Fortune Life

The world's largest hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates, has pursued the principle of "good ideas first" rather than "power first" since its establishment. Andy takes this decision-making principle very seriously and respects it very much.

To make the best ideas stand out, the first step must be for everyone to show their ideas to everyone, and the second step is for everyone to criticize each other and put forward different opinions. Hence the heated debates, the regular meetings with the atmosphere of the Roman Forum.

So in the case of different opinions, how should the final decision be made?

Andy's own judgment method is to fully consider the different backgrounds of each person, then assign different weights to the opinions of people with different expertise, and finally make a decision based on weighted calculations. In this case, it not only ensures the fairness of the decision-making process, but also ensures the scientificity and feasibility of the final decision-making results.

Of course, outstanding ideas and opinions need to be considered by the chief consultant of the think tank, Alvitre. This is a rigorous and systematic decision-making mechanism, so that good ideas can be implemented into action.

There is no way, and Andy doesn't want to go through such a lot of trouble. Isn't it just to make money, as a traveler, it is enough to open cheats casually. The problem is that Andy is only 22 years old this year, and by 2015, he will only be in his thirties. Once he loses his strategic vision and the advantages brought by time travel, Andy can't guarantee whether he will do it in the unknown future. make failed decisions.

Since time travel, everything he has done has been successful, because he clearly knows how to do it to be successful. In the same way, success will only make him form path dependence, repeating past behaviors all the time, unable to achieve progress.

The nature of human beings is conceited, and everyone hopes that their abilities will be recognized by others. Andy can't guarantee whether he will be inflated. Once someone disagrees with his point of view, he may subconsciously regard the disapproval of his subordinates as a challenge, and even get angry. In this state, it is very likely to behave abnormally and make mistakes in decision-making, so that the established goals will not be achieved.

Everyone has blind spots. Some people are nearsighted and can't see things in the distance; some people are farsighted and can't see things close up. The same is true for everyone when thinking about problems. Individuals' habitual thinking patterns may prevent them from making accurate and comprehensive assessments of the situation.

Based on the idea of ​​planning for a rainy day, Andy is now starting to cultivate a team that can firmly maintain his correct position, so that he can get used to the decision-making principle of putting good ideas first, and escort his family business and career, even if there is no time travel The foresight of the author.

"Those who don't plan for the whole world should not plan for a moment; those who don't plan for the overall situation should not plan for a region." Or it would be more appropriate to express it in peace of mind. He doesn't want to fail, he likes the feeling of winning, so he is willing to sit in the conference room and watch Everyone was arguing and refuting, their faces were red, and their own opinions were ruthlessly refuted by the subordinates sitting there.

Willingness to review extensive and detailed reports and summaries of each discussion whenever possible.

Some people may think that this is a provocation to Andy's authority, and the communication between subordinates is too rough, and it will make people feel that they are often questioned and very depressed. But Andy feels that his risk management team really doesn't need employees who are too glassy.

The investment industry is an industry that requires extreme rationality, and personal emotions need to be shielded. And extremely rational people, they can accept rude feedback and doubts from others, not be kidnapped and influenced by personal and market emotions, and stick to their own investment principles. Therefore, it is also easier to stand out in the market.

At the same time, Andy also wanted to test his strength and exercise his mind.

Andy nestled comfortably in the boss chair, squinting his eyes slightly, and together with other people in the meeting room, looked at the only tall young man standing. It is waxed and the sleeves of the white shirt are rolled up. He has no stage fright, and the expression on his face is full of confidence and calmness. He expounded his point of view to everyone. He had already eliminated the views of the other two people with a lot of data before. up.

"...The subprime mortgage crisis has changed the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve from controlling inflation to preventing economic downturn. Interest rates, and commercial bank overnight lending rates have been continuously lowered at the same time.

After all, the Fed does not have many cards to play. The interest rate differential between the US dollar and the euro and the British pound will increase greatly. At the same time, it is foreseeable that banks in other countries will inevitably sell the US dollar one after another, which will put more downward pressure on the US dollar. With the continuous depreciation, those speculators who are waiting for the opportunity will definitely not let go of this opportunity, and the price of crude oil will experience a staged surge. The price of crude oil is now US$65 per barrel, and my analysis shows that the expected price will at least double. . . Please share it for me, this is the evidence of relevant data for my conclusion. "

Andy also took a small stack of documents, smiled and said to the young people who were still distributing materials: "Martin, I thought you, a foreign exchange analyst, would focus on the depreciation of the US dollar, but I didn't expect you to focus on crude oil , so well prepared.”

With a bright smile on his face, Martin Enlong showed his big white teeth, looked at his big boss and raised the documents in his hand with a smile on his face, and said: "It is certain that the dollar will depreciate, but in order to save the market, the governments of various countries will definitely do so." Increase the blood transfusion to the financial system. After all, it is not only the Federal Reserve printing money at home at full capacity. Everyone is printing money at home. In this case, although shorting foreign exchange can make money, the amount of funds invested is directly proportional to the profit. Yes, but without crude oil futures, the value that can be obtained is higher.”

Andy nodded in agreement, and began to flip through the data analysis materials in his hands. The entire conference room fell into a brief silence, only the sound of breathing and flipping papers could be heard.

Andy's memory card plug-in can make his reading speed much faster than ordinary people. After reading the information at a glance, he closed his eyes, switched to the supernatural state, and began to search for the memory of crude oil prices in this period in his mind.

However, as several memories were retrieved, Andy's brows could not help but frowned. He only remembered a program he had watched, which was analyzed by some experts. Since September 11, 2001, the price of crude oil has been rising continuously. The crazy price of US$20 per barrel until 2008 was close to US$150 per barrel, because the United States has been suffocating, trying to cheat the rabbit country, but it made Iran come alive. After that, it was the worst period of the financial crisis, and crude oil fell again. to $40 a barrel, and the program said that this is the deadly trick used by the United States to bring down the Russian economy.

From this point of view, Martin's analysis is very accurate, crude oil will skyrocket, but Andy really can't find the time point for the decline, but forget it, just set a liquidation line, and don't chase the highest point , and set a baseline of $140 per barrel.

Thinking of this, Andy opened his eyes, his originally frowning brows relaxed at the same time, and a happy smile appeared on his face. After scanning Martin's plain face, he looked at Martin who was still reading the information carefully, and his brows frowned. Crumpled Alvetrier, awaiting his comment.

"This plan is feasible!" Al finally read it, looked at Andy, and saw the smile on the big boss's face, and he also smiled. After looking around at the people sitting for a week, he made his comments.

"Okay, Martin, you will go to Liberty City Investment Company to build your team in a while, and I will allocate 200 million US dollars to you first, and I will allocate funds to you after robbing the British pound exchange rate." Andy took Smiling, he looked at Martin, who looked at him expectantly, but now that he knew the crude oil price node, he was relieved. Alvitley made more scientific analysis and judgments based on the data, and the plan submitted by the risk management team Once it is adopted, it will naturally be established immediately among teams that focus on the development of the theme.