My Age of Investment

While Xia Jingxing was busy capturing future unicorn companies in Silicon Valley and San Francisco, several institutional shareholders of Facebook were not idle and took action one after another.

Good news about Facebook continues to appear in the market.

Kristina mentioned in her speeches and interview videos this year and even a few years ago that "together we will build a social home for the earth" and "strive to allow the world's 2 billion Internet users to use Facebook and other companies under the company for more than two hours a day." Development goals and plans such as "products and services" have inexplicably become popular on the Internet.

Soon afterwards, Wall Street investment banks and hedge fund analysts led by Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley began to release their analysis reports on Facebook.

These colorful analysis reports can all find one thing in common, that is, they vigorously promote the growth of Facebook.

For example, Facebook’s current monthly active users can barely reach 1 billion, and there is still half of the blank market in the world waiting for Facebook to occupy and cultivate.

In addition, the 2 billion Internet users in the world are only statistics for 2010. Authoritative analysis organizations have reported that by 2015 and 2020, the number of global Internet users will reach 3 billion and 4.5 billion respectively.

If Facebook can maintain its current market share and grow steadily, it is expected that the number of monthly active users will reach an astonishing 2 billion and 3 billion in 2015 and 2020, ranking first in the world.

In addition to the increase in the number of active users that can increase Facebook's advertising revenue, the increase in the average user usage time will also inject new growth momentum into Facebook's revenue and profit growth.

Some Internet experts and financial professionals who have received shady money have boldly predicted that Facebook will become the first company in human history with a market value exceeding one trillion U.S. dollars!

As soon as this statement came out, there was no doubt that it caused great controversy.

But then, ordinary people began to pay more and more attention to Facebook, and some people even considered whether to spend their retirement money to buy Facebook stocks at the bottom.

Facebook's current market value is less than US$100 billion. If it rises to a trillion US dollars in market value in ten years, wouldn't it be able to achieve a tenfold investment return rate in ten years?

Then I took out the calculator on my mobile phone and calculated it in detail. The average annualized rate of return was as high as 25.89, steadily outperforming the Nasdaq index. Even Buffett would be resigned to it.

However, U.S. retail investors have never been the mainstream of the securities investment market. Even if these people were fooled by experts into buying Facebook stocks at the bottom, mainstream institutional investment funds have always remained calm and did not rush to buy the bottom, nor did they expose Goldman Sachs and Damo's conspiracy.

After all, everyone is in this circle, so there is no need to ruin other people's good deeds.

Of course, there are also a few pricks. I don’t know if it’s because I took the wrong medicine or something. I don’t want to give the face of Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. They pessimistically predict that Facebook’s stock price will fall below 10 US dollars, that is, The stock price will fall by another 60 or 70% based on the current level.

Naturally, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley were very angry about this kind of behavior that was causing trouble, and they led a group of juniors to start a war of words with these people.

Along with the war of words, there is also a stock market war, and Facebook's stock trading volume has suddenly become extremely active in the past week.

There was a large amount of selling and a large amount of buying, which made Facebook's stock price unable to rise or fall. It has been fluctuating and stagnant around $30.

When Xia Jingxing flew to New York, the war of words was almost over. The outcome was naturally that the big investment banks led by Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley won.

These industry giants occupy the right to speak in the industry, and there is no reason why they cannot suppress a few small shrimps.

40 Wall Street Building, top floor conference room.

Xia Jingxing lay lazily on the chair and listened to Liu Hai, Jiang Ping, Zhao Peng and other senior executives reporting on their work.

Zhao Peng is the young man who succeeded Liu Hai as the leader of the U.S. equity team of Envision Capital last year. He has a simple and honest face and is a top student. He is only one year older than Xia Jingxing, but he has already begun to try to manage a hedge fund worth tens of billions of dollars. , the speed of promotion can only be described as a rocket ride.

There are also some voices of opposition within Vision Capital. They believe that Xia Jingxing’s heavy use of Chinese and inexperienced young people is not good for the company’s development, and may even bring down Vision Capital, which has already become a god on Wall Street. .

It was not until the end of last year that Zhao Peng finally rectified his name and led the stock team to deliver an answer that left all opponents speechless. The company earned a net profit of US$4.5 billion, ranking first in the company.

The survival rules of Wall Street are very cruel, and the emphasis is on strength rather than seniority.

But if you want to get ahead, you must first have a good platform, especially for yellow-skinned Chinese.

Therefore, Zhao Peng has always been grateful to Xia Jingxing for his kindness and worked very hard. Before this year was over, he led the team to submit another beautiful investment report card.

Some time ago, Xia Jingxing was very relieved to transfer the Facebook stocks held by Vision Capital to the investment portfolio managed by Zhao Peng's team.

“Darren, our team currently holds a total of 514.02 million shares of Facebook, accounting for 16.8% of Facebook’s total post-IPO share capital.

Among them, the original S1 and S2 funds combined held 15.1 shares, and the original PE fund Autumn Equinox No. 1 held 1.7 shares."

Listening to the precise figures reported from Zhao Peng's mouth, Xia Jingxing nodded from time to time.

Of the 16.8 Facebook shares held by Vision Capital, about 7.55 belong to him, which is half of all S funds, and the other half belongs to the blue-blood aristocrats.

The 1.7 shares held by the Autumn Equinox No. 1 Fund were purchased by Vision Capital from Facebook employees. The real owners are another group of powerful people headed by Ao Guanhai. Blue-blood nobles also participated in the fund's investment.

Strictly speaking, Envision Capital is now only a GP manager and general partner, and no longer plays the dual roles of GP and LP as it did before.

Since it is not all your own money, some things cannot be handled as casually as before.

"Perhaps I have heard some rumors. Recently, some big families from the East Coast have been asking me whether they will sell part of Facebook's second round of stocks after the ban is lifted."

Zhao Peng smiled bitterly and shook his head, "I can only explain to them repeatedly that the company has its own investment strategy."

Liu Hai said angrily: "These people are getting more and more careless. Can LPs interfere in GP's investment decisions at will? If they don't want us to manage their assets, then they might as well redeem them all!"

Xia Jingxing waved his hand and signaled Liu Hai to calm down. He himself said very calmly: "Those Facebook stocks are not a small amount after all. They add up to nearly 10 billion US dollars. They are definitely not very willing to pay for Goldman Sachs and other big companies." Motivate their backs."

Zhao Peng nodded and said: "Yes, they must have noticed a series of big moves made by Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley recently. They knew that the two major investment banks were preparing to cash out and start business, so they rushed us to do what they thought was the "right thing". "decision."

Xia Jingxing scratched his head and chuckled: "Should these grandsons be called smart or smart?"

Liu Hai said in a stiff tone: "Just follow their ideas and sell all the stocks, so as not to interfere with our operations by gesticulating."

Xia Jingxing was a little hesitant. Selling stocks was easy, but selling Facebook stocks meant severing the relationship with this group of powerful people. They would no longer take special care of Facebook in the future.

But then again, Facebook is now on the market and has passed its weakest entrepreneurial stage. It is not the time for cats and dogs to bully it.

Including his own shares in Facebook, they have all been dispersed through various arrangements. There is no need to be as cautious as in the past. If the situation is not good, he will just leave.

The 7.55 shares held by Vision Capital, plus the total 5.34 shares held by Majia Capital such as Gao Ling Capital, Snow Lake Capital, Tiger Asia, and Global Investments, and finally the half of Facebook shares held by the Rockefeller Family Office That is 2.12 shares. The above three parts constitute all the Facebook shares he holds, totaling 15.01.

If you want to cash out, you only need to wait for the subsequent rounds of stock lifting to complete the stock sales in a very low-key manner. If handled properly, it will not cause too much stock price fluctuations.

On the contrary, as the current CEO and the company's largest shareholder, Kristina's shareholding is as high as 19.19. If she dares to cash out on a large scale, it will definitely cause pessimism and widespread panic in the market.

The same goes for Yinnock Trust Fund. Although this institution's shareholding is not high, only 4.25, it is also labeled as Kristina. If there is any disturbance, it may be regarded as some decision made by Kristina.

Xia Jingxing thought for a moment and decided to put this issue aside for the time being, and said, "Let's talk in detail about the recent war of words between Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley."

Zhao Peng nodded slightly and then introduced: "Zhengfang doesn't need to be introduced too much. The list includes most of Wall Street, led by Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. The two asset management giants BlackRock and Vanguard Group are the cornerstones of Facebook. Investors, as the company's stock price plummeted, also suffered a lot of losses, so they also had analysts shouting out the news, echoing Goldman Sachs."

Xia Jingxing nodded lightly. Facebook's current list of shareholders is very luxurious. If you pull out any one, they are the overlords in various financial subdivisions such as VC, PE, hedge funds, and investment banks.

“The opposition is the institution that has been badmouthing Facebook recently, led by Eric Jackson, the founder of the hedge fund Iroa.

In an interview with BC TV, he gave a completely opposite prediction to that of Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley regarding the future development of Facebook.

Analysts from Goldman Sachs say that in ten years, Facebook will have three times the number of active users and five times the time spent by users. Taking into account the increase in advertising prices and more advertising spaces being dug up, Facebook will have three times the number of active users in ten years. Revenue and net profit will be at least 30 times what they are now.

Facebook’s current price-to-earnings ratio is about 100 times, corresponding to a market value of US$100 billion;

If the market value reaches US$1 trillion in ten years, the price-to-earnings ratio will be around 30 times. "

Xia Jingxing tilted his head and thought about it seriously. He found that this Goldman Sachs analyst had something special. First, he had a rich imagination. Secondly, his analysis was also very logical. Finally, he used various exquisite valuation models. Perhaps Facebook can directly copy this analysis report as its development goals for the next ten years.

Zhao Peng continued: "But Eric Jackson didn't see it that way. He boldly predicted that in the next 5 to 10 years, Facebook will disappear like Yahoo.

Although Yahoo has gone through multiple layoffs after being acquired by Microsoft and still has nearly 10,000 employees, and the website is still operating, Jackson feels that this giant is old and dead and has no way to make a comeback. If Microsoft does not stop its losses in time, it will soon It's possible to be dragged down by it. "

Xia Jingxing looked a little embarrassed. Speaking of which, he was the matchmaker for Microsoft's acquisition of Yahoo.

Gates originally wanted to use this method to gather the power of Yahoo to deal with Google, but Google still dominates the global search engine market. Bg, which was born by absorbing the essence of the original LiveSearch and Yahoo search engines, has been developing tepidly. .

Yahoo's most valuable asset, Ali's shares, have been divested by Xia Jingxing to Vision Capital, Facebook, and Ali's management, leaving Microsoft with nothing but a pile of baggage.

No wonder Gates hasn't contacted me recently and is alienated.

After understanding this, Xia Jingxing realized that he was running down a road without friends.

In fact, it's not bad. Vision Capital helped Gates earn tens of billions of dollars during the financial crisis. A small trick on Gates is nothing. It's just an unintentional mistake. It won't affect the friendship between the two too much. After all, Gates There is still a large amount of assets managed by Envision Capital.

Zhao Peng spread his hands, "Jackson's point of view is roughly this. He believes that the world is developing rapidly and market competition is becoming increasingly severe. For companies like Facebook that dominate the current generation of Internet, they will encounter difficulties when dealing with the arrival of the new generation of Internet. Big trouble.

The implication is that Facebook will follow in the footsteps of Yahoo and be killed by many new entrepreneurs in the wave of mobile Internet. "

Xia Jingxing smiled and said: "His point of view is somewhat reasonable. The biggest problem facing Facebook now is the transformation to the mobile Internet. Not to mention whether the transformation can be successful, even if it is successful, it will still need to re-explore the business model."

Zhao Peng shook his head and said: "Although what Jackson said makes some sense, he is just the founder of a medium-sized hedge fund, and no one wants to listen to him.

With a little effort from Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, Jackson's voice was suppressed. "

Xia Jingxing asked: "Is it just Jackson? Abel said that there are several short sellers eyeing Facebook at the same time."

"That's right! This is why Facebook's stock price has been unable to rise recently."

Zhao Peng said with a smile: "Jackson should be the spokesperson pushed to the stage by the short sellers. The real person in charge is still fighting fiercely with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley in the stock market. "

"Have you found out who is behind Jackson?" Xia Jingxing asked.

"We haven't found any yet, but they obviously have a lot of energy and have ruined the stock-raising plans of Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley."

Xia Jingxing nodded slightly. During this period, although he was leisurely looking at projects in Silicon Valley and San Francisco and seemed to be indifferent to Facebook, he kept sending people to keep an eye on Facebook's stock price changes.

Short sellers want to short Facebook, constantly badmouthing Facebook, and at the same time borrowing large amounts of stocks and selling them.

Selling too many stocks in a short period of time will cause the stock price to fall.

What Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley need is to raise their stock prices when the lifting of the ban is approaching, and then cash out at high levels.

So, two groups of people with different goals met like this!

The battlefield of public opinion and the battlefield of stock trading are both being fought.

At present, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, which have big trees and deep roots, are more powerful.

Xia Jingxing turned his gaze to Jiang Ping, who was silent and staring intently at the computer, and said, "Brother Jiang Ping, why don't you express your opinion?"

Jiang Ping raised his head, glanced at Xia Jingxing, and said with a smile, "I'm watching a good show. It seems like the winner is going to be decided today."

Hearing this, Xia Jingxing, Liu Hai, and Zhao Peng stood up one after another and walked behind Jiang Ping to watch the so-called good show.

The K-line chart on the computer rose and fell. Suddenly, a powerful Yang line rose from the ground, and led Facebook's stock price to start to rise crazily with an unstoppable attitude.

$32.40!

$33.1!

$34.20!

As a large amount of buying orders were placed, the stock price rushed towards the $40 mark.

Seeing this scene, Xia Jingxing said with a smile: "The increase is good, little cotton-padded jacket has money for milk powder!"