Rebirth Starts From 2006

Huang Shan was still thinking about the consequences of Chen Yang's words, while Qin Yu tilted her head, looked at him and asked,

"Do you judge that the real estate industry will show an upward trend within ten years, and will turn from prosperity to decline after ten years?"

Qin Yu is most sensitive to the economic cycle when making financial investments, so as soon as Chen Yang said it, she immediately thought of this issue.

Hearing this, Chen Yang didn't react yet, but Huang Shan raised her head instantly, looked at Qin Yu, then at Chen Yang, and waited for his answer.

Chen Yang grabbed the teacup, unscrewed the lid and took a sip of water, then laughed and said, "You can't simply say that."

Huang Shan frowned slightly, and said, "You'd better talk about your ideas, so that I can formulate financing and financial plans in a targeted manner, and at the same time determine how much your reserved shares should go before going public, otherwise, Your losses may be in the tens of billions!"

Chen Yang's face froze, is that an exaggeration?

However, regardless of whether there are serious consequences, he will still say what should be said,

With a dry cough, he sorted out his thoughts by the way, and then said, "In my opinion, the development of the real estate industry should go through three stages.

The first one is to ask for dividends from the land. It is best to understand at this stage, that is, whoever can get the land can make money! "

Huang Shan nodded lightly, "Understood, this is the stage now. Since 2005, the domestic property market has entered a fast upward channel. As long as you can get the land, you don't have to worry about being unable to build a house. As long as you build a good house, you don't have to worry about selling it." Don’t go out, so land is equal to real estate and equal to profit!”

"That's right,"

Chen Yang nodded with a smile and said, "But land resources are limited,"

After a pause, he emphasized again, "I mean that the land resources of first-tier cities are limited, especially real estate projects are closely connected with urban planning. It is estimated that within a few years, real estate projects can be built to the boundary of the city.

Even break through the boundary line and repair to the edge of the surrounding cities! "

This is how the so-called satellite city came about. It obviously belongs to this city, but the economy and population are heavily dependent on the big households nearby, and the housing prices are also on par with the big households, even higher than the housing prices in their superior cities.

Qin Yu frowned, "But can the city keep up?"

"Of course I can't keep up," Chen Yang pouted, and said, "It's nothing more than an overdrawn plan for the future, even with the nature of gambling."

Huang Shan took a deep breath,

After thinking for a while, he said, "If the situation develops according to what you said, then in a few years, buying a house is really a gamble. If you gamble on the direction of the city's development, the house price may increase exponentially.

I didn't win the bet, and due to the influence of the overall market, house prices will not fall, but the increase is not very optimistic. "

"That's right,"

Chen Yang looked at her with some surprise in his eyes,

Huang Shan's analysis is completely in line with the differences in housing prices in big cities later.

In the areas included in the key development plan, the house price can increase tenfold in ten years, but in the areas not included, even if the subway is connected, the highest increase is only half of those areas.

This is because along the subway line, far away from the subway station, the increase may not even be one-third, the difference is too big,

It's not easy for Huang Shan to come to this conclusion with just a few words of her own.

I was sighing in my heart, but my mouth didn't stop, and I continued to laugh, "And at this time, it is the end of the development cycle of land dividends, and it is no longer the time to buy a piece of land casually and make a lot of money.

Maybe you can only make a little money, and there is even a risk of backlog. At this time, what do you think real estate companies need most? "

Huang Shan narrowed her eyes, and quickly gave the answer, "Cash flow?"

"correct!"

Chen Yang snapped his fingers and said with a smile, "This is the second stage of the development of real estate companies, the stage of financial dividends!"

It's Huang Shan again,

She raised her finger lightly, and said in thought, "I think I should understand what you mean."

Chen Yang blinked, while Qin Yu was in a daze, the two looked at her together,

Huang Shan still lowered her eyebrows, thinking while saying,

"When the land bonus period is over, the acquisition of land cannot guarantee the profitability of the enterprise, or in other words, after the gross profit rate of the real estate company drops at a speed visible to the naked eye,

If they still want to earn the same amount of money, real estate companies can only acquire peers or continue to acquire land by increasing leverage.

Because the profits that can be earned from a piece of land in the past may need two or even three yuan in the future, and no land means no profit. At that time, real estate companies will definitely enter the land reserve competition.

The root of land acquisition lies in funds. Whoever has sufficient funds can continue, otherwise he can only be out of the game.

But where does such a large amount of funds come from?

If the asset-liability ratio is too high, banks will not and dare not approve loans. If they cannot get loans, they will not be able to buy land, and the company will not develop. How can this situation be broken?

Let me think, let me think..."

Huang Shan tapped her head lightly, and after a few seconds, her eyes suddenly lit up, she raised her head to look at Chen Yang, and said suddenly, "I see, off-balance sheet leverage and capital pool!"

Chen Yang blinked lightly, glanced at Qin Yu, and found that she was thinking,

well, very good,

Looks like I'm not the only one who didn't understand!

But we can't give up

Then he gave a dry cough, and was about to blow a few words, when Huang Shan continued,

"The connection between the real estate company and the financial system is very close. When necessary, they can find enough financial experts to design unique financing tools that are in line with the actual situation of the company.

Then, there is a cycle, borrowing money, buying land, selling the house, paying back the money, and borrowing money again..."

When she said this, Huang Shan's waving hands suddenly stopped, she looked up at Chen Yang, and said in amazement, "Isn't the balance sheet about to explode?"

Chen Yang could only continue blinking, skipping the topic, and continued her words, "So, at this time, the counter-cyclical adjustment of the invisible hand is late but arrived!

It is impossible for a real estate industry to drag down the entire financial system, especially after it has had an important negative impact on the manufacturing and high-tech industries.

Regardless of whether it is from the financial system, or directly targeting real estate companies, or even directly from the level of land access, the adjustment policies that should be matched will definitely be in place, and the leverage ratio and high debt of real estate companies will inevitably fail, "

Chen Yang spread his hands, shrugged and said, "At this time, there is no other way out except to learn from foreign real estate companies and ask management for bonuses."

At this time, Qin Yu finally found a chance to speak, nodded thoughtfully, and said, "This is a bit similar to Japan. In the early days, Japan was crazy about land acquisition, and a lot of bad things about demolition and relocation were produced because of this.

Later, the price of land rose too much, and the stock price also rose sharply, so real estate companies at that time went public one after another, financing through the stock market, and obtaining more bargaining chips for land acquisition.

After that, the myths of the stock market and property market were shattered, a large number of Japanese real estate companies went bankrupt, and the rest returned to the position of ordinary companies.

As far as I know, the profit of Japan's real estate industry is only about 5%, which is not even as good as that of the textile industry.

But their income from management is quite good, and through the refined management of design, construction, sales, and even later property management, they have reaped good profits."

Having said that, Qin Yu raised his head and looked at Chen Yang, "So, this is also the way out for our real estate company in the future?"