The Millennium Semiconductor Survival Guide

"I have always known that there is a big gap between Huaguo and American, and I had a very intuitive feeling when they exchanged in Santa Barbara.

But before my comparison object was the people around me. When I was studying at Yanda University, those who were able to come to Yanda to study were able to maintain a certain level. work. Then let alone the Faxiao who grew up together.

Their economic level, if you use probability, it is an underestimation to describe it as one in ten thousandth.

After going to the Yangtze River Delta and going deep into the front line of the manufacturing industry, I intuitively felt how hard the labor force is living.

For example, the agreed unit price of parts is 20 cents each, and the workers work hard to break through 30,000 pieces a month, and work more than 12 hours a day, which means their highest monthly salary exceeds 6,000 yuan.

Then the factory will use various reasons to reduce the unit price, and in the second month, the unit price will be reduced to 10 cents each, or even lower. I talked with the directors of the joint venture factories in Huaguo in Wanwan, Korea, and Neon, and they generally responded that the wage cost should be controlled below 2,000 yuan.

When I was in the Yangtze River Delta region, I used another identity. It was roughly related to a local business management leader.

Therefore, the heads of the local private enterprises are very polite to me, and almost answer my questions truthfully.

That is to say, the rules have been formulated. If the wages of workers exceed 2,000 yuan, the rules can be changed flexibly.

Even so, workers lack the means to resist. Therefore, companies like Yongxin that follow the rules and do not set a salary cap are extremely rare.

Also in the Yangtze River Delta, I went shopping around the West Lake. The unit price per square meter of the lake-view house that can see the West Lake has exceeded 4,000 US dollars. Many foreign businessmen or executives of foreign companies in China buy houses there, and then go on vacation on weekends. "

In 2000, the unit price of houses with a view of the lake, such as Hyatt Apartments and Yuanhua Apartments in West Lake, was around US$4,000 per square meter.

Cao Yongluo said with emotion: "What I want to say is, can we really change the status quo and let the Chinese people live the life of the American people?"

Zhou Xin said: "There will be such a day.

Do you know where Huaguo will be affected the soonest after China's accession to the WTO? "

Cao Yongluo said without hesitation: "It must be Xiangjiang. Xiangjiang is definitely the first area to be affected. In the past, many products manufactured in Huaguo needed to be transferred to Xiangjiang, and then exported to Europe and the United States with the logo of Xiangjiang.

In order to avoid the risk of cargo transfer and reduce the tax on the circulation of goods between the mainland and Xiangjiang, manufacturing companies in Huaguo will transport parts to Xiangjiang and complete the final assembly in Xiangjiang.

After Huaguo joined the WTO, there is no need for it. Xiangjiang, which has no advantages except tariffs, will be swallowed up by the mainland in terms of manufacturing. The siphon effect in the Yangtze River Delta region will soon destroy Xiangjiang's manufacturing industry. "

After listening to Zhou Xin, he knew that Cao Yongluo really knew the manufacturing industry very well, because in his understanding, Xiangjiang was indeed the first to be affected.

At the time of Yuanshikong, Zhou Xin was studying abroad in Berkeley. He had a chat with a classmate from Xiangjiang. The classmate’s family used to be in the manufacturing industry. After 2001, the family’s business fell off a cliff, and later changed to rent collection.

According to official statistics, Huaguo joined the WTO at the end of 2001. By March 2002, Xiangjiang's foreign trade orders had dropped by more than 15%, and the metal manufacturing, electronics, and machinery industries had dropped the most, reaching as high as 30%. %.

This is why Xiangjiang later mainly developed the financial industry, service industry and real estate industry, because they had no choice.

Zhou Xin said: "That's right, after Huaguo joins the WTO, it will gradually eat up other countries' manufacturing shares."

Because he was worried that his home would also be installed with equipment, Zhou Xin couldn't say something too directly. He could only start from the perspective of manufacturing development.

"So for Huaguo, I can put some more valuable industrial chains in Huaguo, such as the current Internet mobile phone. I put the production in Huaguo. Driven by Matrix, other mobile phone brands will also integrate Part of the production process was put in Huaguo.

Even if there is no matrix, this process will gradually happen, because Huaguo's manufacturing industry has unique advantages in many aspects. For Huaguo, joining the WTO has completely released its advantages in manufacturing. matrix is ​​only able to speed up the process.

But there is one thing that only Matrix can do, and other mobile phone manufacturers can't, that is, to give Huaguo companies opportunities in parts with technical content, so that Huaguo companies can also enjoy technological dividends. "

Speaking of this, Cao Yongluo was a little frustrated, "I told you in the email before that the matrix keyboard was counterfeited by other companies in Huaguo, and then exported to American.

This incident gave me a lot of doubts. Huaguo has done very poorly in intellectual property protection. Under such an environment, can Huaguo enterprises really enjoy the technological dividend?

What I said in the email is relatively simple, that is, the matrix keyboard was disassembled and reproduced by other manufacturers in about two months.

After they realized the reproduction, they manufactured a large number of products that simulated Matrix keyboards, and then exported them to American. This kind of product is almost exactly the same as Matrix, but the quality control and quality are at most slightly worse than Matrix.

But the matrix keyboard is sold for $499, and their export price of these products has dropped from $100 to only $15 now. I estimate their profit margin is only 20% at most.

At the beginning, one or two companies counterfeited, and later more and more companies began to counterfeit, and the export price plummeted.

In the face of the price advantage, except for some users who are really not short of money or respect the original version, they buy matrix keyboards from official channels. And it's useless for me to find a relationship on it, because companies that counterfeit matrix keyboards are everywhere from the Yangtze River Delta to the Pearl River Delta.

It is impossible to manage it, and they are unwilling to manage it for the localities. If only Matrix made Matrix keyboards, the export value would be several million dollars at most, because the high price of 499 dollars, even for Americans, few people can afford.

After the export price was reduced to US$15, the entire export value instantly increased to a market worth tens of millions of US dollars. And because the matrix keyboard structure has brought a severe impact to the original keyboard industry, from cherry to filco to Dell and Logitech, a series of manufacturers that originally made membrane keyboards and mechanical keyboards have begun to enter the field of imitation matrix keyboards.

And almost without exception, they are looking for OEM companies in China. If the export value of the keyboard industry as a whole is included, it is about 50 million US dollars.

If the responsibilities for technical patents are to be investigated one by one, the export and foreign trade industry will be severely hit. There are even counties in the Yangtze River Delta. More than 30% of the companies in the entire county are focusing on the production of keycaps, shafts and metal casings.

From the perspectives of protecting the local economy, protecting the survival of enterprises, generating income for the local area, creating job opportunities, etc., the priority of protecting intellectual property rights is much lower.

Therefore, under such a background, it is difficult for me to be confident that Huaguo enterprises can truly enjoy the technological dividend, or enjoy the long-term technological dividend. "

Cao Yongluo took a sip of Coca-Cola and moistened his throat, and continued: "When I was in the ivory tower, I always felt that the rules took precedence. After the rules are formulated, they need to be implemented according to the rules. Many times in the real world, the rules will not play their role. .

Rules are not necessarily made to be enforced, and enforcing them may cause greater damage in the short term than not enforcing them. Including rules such as the protection of intellectual property rights, which were also rushed out after joining the WTO, and the implementation level is actually very limited. "

Zhou Xin smiled, looking at this question from a higher perspective, he can give a good answer in the future, Zhou Xin never worried about this question:

“When I was making the matrix keyboard, I didn’t expect it to sell many, it was purely to build the matrix brand, so that everyone can recognize that matrix is ​​a high-end, technological and innovative brand.

Quickly associate the brand with these concepts. Therefore, we need to subvert a certain industry. The keyboard is a popular field. Anyone who has used a computer will have a demand for a keyboard. This is another field of extremely homogeneous competition. If you succeed in making a membrane keyboard, then I Also do membrane keyboards.

The research and development ideas of enterprises in this field are also centered around lower latency and longer use time for research and development, and the research and development investment is very small.

This also means that this field is easy to subvert. There are too many ways to change this field in terms of appearance, overall texture, typing sound and touch. There are a lot of changes, but to be honest, there is no technical content.

It is more like a subversion of creativity, coupled with high pricing and advertisements everywhere, it actually allows users to have a concept of the Matrix brand at a minimal cost.

The merchandise itself is only secondary. Now judging from the sales volume of Mphone, this is a very successful step. The release of Mphone has once again deepened the user's recognition of the matrix brand and the brand concept.

Therefore, the matrix keyboard has no technical content, so other companies can easily reverse engineer and produce it.

It is not so easy to switch to other fields. Like Mphone, it sells very well in American, and the price is very high. Has any company imitated it?

I'm afraid not? Just Mphone's mobile phone chips, not to mention Huaguo Enterprises, American Enterprises, no one can imitate them. "

"So matrix cannot be regarded as a technical advantage, it is an advantage in design and concept, which is easy to imitate."

Cao Yongluo shook his head: "I don't agree with what you said.

Taking Mphone as an example, now Huaguo enterprises can only do mobile phone casings and assembly. In the future, it will probably gradually start from batteries, then PCB boards, then screens, and finally chips and cameras.

The problem is that the advantages of Huaguo enterprises are limited, and their technological advantages are also weak technological advantages, which can easily be reversed.

In this case, it is difficult for Huaguo enterprises to accumulate technological advantages. "

Zhou Xin said: "We can choose to choose companies with patent rights. With the support of matrix, companies with patent rights can enjoy technological advantages. They will either maintain their technological advantages all the time, or they will be eliminated by other companies one day.

Nothing more than these two results. "

Zhou Xin continued: "The biggest problem with Mphone now is that the battery is not enough. Users need to charge it once a day, and even need to charge it twice a day if it is used frequently.

If anyone can solve the battery problem, even if there is only a slight technological improvement, then we will choose him as a supplier. Mphone has now completed distribution in Maple Leaf, South America, and Europe, and its sales are expected to exceed five million next year.

For suppliers who can optimize batteries, this is a five million market, which means that the entire mobile phone industry will be open to them. Isn't this market big enough?

The great advantage of doing Mphone lies in the brand effect. If Mphone is successful enough, the upstream and downstream suppliers of Mphone supply chain will be highly regarded by other mobile phone manufacturers in the future, and even directly enter their supply chain process.

When we are doing Mphone supplier selection, we will naturally take a high look at Nokia's suppliers. After Mphone replaces Nokia in the future, Mphone suppliers will be able to enjoy the same treatment. "

The problem for Huaguo enterprises is that it is difficult to continue to increase investment in research and development after they have technological advantages.

Take Changhong as an example. At this time, Changhong was the most technologically advanced TV manufacturing company in Huaguo, and the only manufacturer in Huaguo that could manufacture fourth-generation rear-projection TVs. Later, it gradually lost its technical advantages and lost its core technical advantages.

Zhou Xin remembered something that he heard from the Morgan investors when he met with them before, and then told Cao Yongluo: "Huaguo is actually able to achieve technological leadership or gain technological advantages in a few fields.

I heard that Huaguo launched a brand new multimedia TV transmission protocol last year, which is much ahead of the TV transmission protocol standards of American, Europe and Neon.

It seems to be called DMB-T. It is a company founded by Mizuki University and Mizuki University alumni who returned to China. They jointly developed a set of standards, which improves the transmission efficiency by 10% compared with European technical standards.

They are now developing decoding chips based on this set of standards. I think they need to have confidence in Huaguo's companies. "

The DMB-T standard was developed in the laboratory in 2000 and became a national standard in 2006. It can achieve a transmission speed of 33MB/s, which was enough for the TV definition at that time.

Of course they are just designing chips.

The chip LGS-8G52 they launched later has excellent single-carrier and multi-carrier performance, and shows obvious technical advantages in anti-multipath interference and low power consumption, which reduces the cost of chip implementation. At that time, the all-in-one digital TV launched by LG on the market adopted a dual-chip solution, while the LGS-8G52 only needed a single chip to realize it.

Coincidentally, the OEM of LGS-8G52 is SMIC.

Cao Yongluo: "Maybe I am too pessimistic."

Zhou Xin: "It's always easy to be pessimistic when you look down and do things. It's easy to ignore the power of time. It's easy to be optimistic when you look up at the sky. You feel that the sun seems not far away from you."

About the LGS-8G52 TV decoder chip, you can go to the report on SMIC's official website on April 18, 2008.

I don't know if I'm positive or not. It happened twice during this period, about three or four days apart. At night, I had an itchy throat, and then I coughed violently. After drinking cough syrup, I was fine the next day.