The Millennium Semiconductor Survival Guide

Suspicion is considered a mainstream forum in China, but not many investors will actually regard the above answers as investment advice, even those who are well-known retail investors who have made a lot of money.

Not to mention that the current securities market in China can only be described in two words: crazy.

Since the shareholding reform, Big A has ushered in a comprehensive bull market. Without the butterfly effect brought by Zhou Xin, this bull market in China would have lasted from mid-2005 to October 2007, and was coveted by subsequent investors. The media hailed it as an epic bull market.

The Shanghai Composite Index has risen from 998 points to 6,000 points, and investment "experts" claim that 10,000 points is not a dream.

In addition, there is data that can reflect how popular Big A is. The China A-share fund sold by Morgan Stanley is a closed-end, non-diversified investment fund. It is registered in the United States and is specifically targeted at individual American investors. The fund that invested in China's A-share market was fully subscribed within one hour of its first issuance, raising more than US$200 million.

You must know that this is aimed at individual investors of American, they are all so crazy, which shows how crazy the hype of Big A is at this time.

The suspicion should be more or less well-founded, and the abacus should be based on some basis. If you go to the stock bar launched by Oriental Fortune Network last year, you can see that all of them are worth 200 billion. It is not a problem, and one trillion is also close at hand.

“Mr.

Because the price-to-earnings ratio is too high, Xinxin's upside potential after listing is limited. I just don't think so. I think this valuation is actually a serious underestimation.

Xinxin has 10 billion contracts on its books alone, and will monopolize the entire immersion lithography machine market in the foreseeable next two years.

In this semiconductor equipment segment, which is growing at a rapid rate of 40% every year, Xinxin has a technological advantage and will even achieve an absolute monopoly in the next two years.

There should be no other company in China that has achieved such an achievement, right? A valuation of 100 billion is far from enough. I think 500 billion is the bottom line, and 1 trillion is Xinxin’s goal. "

This is a financial program on Shenhai Satellite TV. Two guests had different views on the launch of new core lithography machines. The former believed that the launch price was too high and the space was limited.

The latter is mostly an emotional rebuttal without much practical substance. With the launch of Xinxin's lithography machine, the prospectus and Xinxin's technological strength have been analyzed by these financial programs.

Because this is an unprecedented bull market, financial programs, especially those related to the stock market, are particularly popular with viewers, and tickets to the show can even be obtained through connections.

There is a time lag between the recording of the program and the broadcast. Many live viewers hope to seize this time lag and convert the guests' opinions into red profits on their stock accounts.

After the two guests finished speaking, the audience voted with applause. The latter's emotional speech received thunderous applause. The audience obviously hoped that Xinxin could rise to one trillion.

This will help the entire market become more popular, especially for users who hold stocks related to semiconductor equipment. The height of the leader of Xinxin Lithography Machine determines the height of the stocks in their hands.

The previous guest also wanted to retort: ​​"I admit that Xinxin is great and is one of the few technology companies in China.

I didn’t say its price was expensive. Taking into account its technical advantages and scarcity in the country, it is reasonable, but when you mentioned 500 billion, that’s a bit exaggerated. "

"I just want to ask a question, Teacher Xue, have you subscribed?"

"Yes, I said you will definitely make money by subscribing, it's just a matter of making more or less."

"Then how much do you plan to sell it for? Will you sell it before 500 billion?"

“If I win the lottery, I will probably hold it for a long time.

There is no necessary connection between the two. I hold it for a long time because I am optimistic about Huaguo's long-term development in high-end technology and the future development prospects of Xinxin under the leadership of President Zhou Xin.

This is my long-term investment logic. I don’t think it can explode to 500 billion in the short term, which will overdraw the value of the next five years in advance.

This is like we all think that this child will grow to 1.8 meters in the future, but if you say that he will grow to 1.8 meters tomorrow, that would be an exaggeration. "

"According to the information I have received, the price quoted by Intel to acquire New Core was US$20 billion. This was the offer given the day after the opening ceremony of the Tokyo Semiconductor Equipment Show.

As of today, Xinxin’s immersion lithography machine has been verified by all parties and fully proved its strength. Will it still only be worth 20 billion US dollars? "

Intel's quotation for Xinxin was gradually circulated in the financial circle with the launch of Xinxin. Everyone was dubious about it. Later, when they saw the cooperation between Xinxin and Intel in the prospectus, they were inclined to believe it.

This news is quite heavy for the audience and presenters. This is Intel, and Intel has quoted a price of US$20 billion. Doesn’t this prove the technical advantages of the new core lithography machine?

The host quickly interrupted the debate among the guests and shifted the topic to why Intel is optimistic about the new core.

There are many similar financial programs, and there are also many comments about the listing of Xinxin.

On the day of listing, Xinxin Lithography Machine's share price soared 15% and was suspended twice in a row.

Unlike after 2014, when new shares were listed on the first day of listing, the increase was limited to 44%. At this time, the increase in new shares was limited to 900%. It is almost impossible for any company to touch this upper limit.

Even the most optimistic investors do not believe that Xinxin can reach this upper limit on the first day, a market value of one trillion RMB.

On the day of listing, it could only be said to have a small increase of 20% when the auction opened. At that time, investors suspected that Xinxin's new shares were indeed priced too high. As a result, the skyrocketing after the opening almost quickly led to the intraday suspension of Xinxin's lithography machines.

At the beginning of 2007, listed companies were suspended up to four times. The first time was when the difference between the intraday increase and the opening price reached 50%.

In other words, it only took less than half an hour for Xinxin Lithography Machine to rise to 170%, and was suspended from trading by the Shanghai Stock Exchange for fifteen minutes.

Before the Shanghai Stock Exchange issued a statement to end the trading suspension and restart sales, the stock price of Xinxin Lithography Machine had exceeded the 150% triggering suspension limit.

Therefore, a strange phenomenon occurred. After N Shin Kong's trading was suspended for the third time, trading was suspended for another half an hour after one and a half minutes of trading. The difference between the increase and the opening increase reached 200%.

It fell back at the final close, but Xinxin still surged 300% on its first day, with its market value exceeding RMB 400 billion.

From hot money to retail investors, everyone is rushing to grab money.

Why didn't the hot money join forces and adopt the strategy of fluctuation and slight increase on the first day to let the lucky retail investors who won the lottery give up their chips?

This is because Xinxin lithography machines are too famous, and Zhou Xin’s halo effect made them try a little at the opening but it didn’t work at all. The turnover rate was less than 0.1%, which made the hot money give up. idea.

In such a good market, with a new stock that is so scarce, certain, and topical, it is wise to grab chips as soon as possible.

So much so that the grand occasion on the day Xinxin was listed was still talked about by old investors many years later.

"The semiconductor business lithography equipment of Xinxin Group, founded by Mainland China's richest man Zhou Xin, was spun off and listed separately on the Shanghai Stock Exchange. It performed brilliantly on the first day of listing, with an increase of more than 300%.

As of today's close, the market value of Xinxin Lithography Machine has exceeded RMB 400 billion, or approximately US$52 billion, which is ten times that of ASML, a listed company in the same field in the Netherlands.

Some stock commentators believe that "

Xiangjiang Phoenix TV's report made a detailed comparison between Xinxin and ASML, because both companies are manufacturers that focus on lithography machines and are pursuers in this field.

ASML's market value is about 8 billion euros, or about 80 billion yuan, with revenue of 2.5 billion euros and profits of about 300 million euros. Xinxin only surpasses ASML in market value.

Of course, there is also technology. Xinxin is technically ahead of ASML, but is this technological lead worth the 320 billion RMB gap?

Phoenix Satellite TV thinks it is not possible, while domestic stock commentators and retail investors are having a great time.

Zhou Xin had a headache: "md, why do I always encounter this kind of hype every time?"

He thought to himself, to be honest, Zhou Xin felt that it was more reasonable for Xinxin to have a valuation of RMB 150 billion, taking into account both the current value and the future growth space.

If we want to benchmark ASML, which has a market value of 2 trillion RMB in the future, then the new core lithography machine of 400 billion RMB is not expensive at all.

The problem is that that is fifteen years later, and Xinxin is now equivalent to overdrawing its stock price for the next five years in advance. This is not a reasonable phenomenon.

And this is only the day of listing. Considering the popular atmosphere of Big A, Zhou Xin is really afraid that one trillion yuan will not be a dream.

Since he is not short of money and cannot reduce his holdings to cash out in the short term, this is actually a pressure.

When the financial crisis comes, he does not think that Xinxin lithography machine can survive alone in the situation of chaos and chaos.

"Please help me contact the financial program, I want to cool down personally.

The capital market or the hype surrounding Xinxin is a bit too much.

Although what I say may not be effective, it can save one person. "

It is indeed not enough for leeks to be as ambitious as the sky and as thin as paper, but it is the chaotic management system that big A controls regardless of what should be controlled and what should not be controlled, the listed companies that frequently operate in violation of regulations, the vulture-like hot money from all walks of life, and the media that talks nonsense. It is the source of Big A’s permanent three thousand points.

However, this is understandable. China’s stock market does not exist for retail investors to make money at all. It exists for companies to raise money. In a sense, the original intention determines the outcome.

Zhou Xin made a decision quickly. On the third night after the new core lithography machine was launched, he participated in a financial interview on Shenhai TV that day. Shenhai TV specially selected a host to conduct the interview.

Zhou Xin's secretary had fully communicated with Shenhai before coming. The main purpose of this interview was to talk about the launch of Xinxin lithography machine. Zhou Xin wanted to reveal the risks to everyone through an open platform.

Why not choose these online platforms such as Oasis or Suspicion? Because the number of Internet users in China is still a minority, especially the stock investor group who are mainly in their 40s and 50s.

Shenhai TV has enough publicity channels to let a large number of viewers know that there will be a live broadcast tonight. This is Zhou Xin's first TV interview after returning to China.

"Let us applaud and invite Zhou Xin and President Xin to join our "China Operators""

Zhou Xin smiled and shook hands with the host.

"Huaguo Operator" is a program jointly created by Shenhai TV and CNN. It is broadcast globally by Shenhai TV and CNBC.

Previous interviewers were composed of chairmen or founders of a series of large domestic companies such as Lenovo, Gome, Mengniu, China Merchants Bank, and CNOOC.

Even so, the host was still very excited: "We have had many big names come to this show before, but this is the first time that a big name like the new president has come.

I was honored but also very nervous. I was afraid that I would be fired by the station director if I didn’t say a word correctly. Our station director was staring at me in front of the camera. "

Because I know Zhou Xin's interview style, the host this time was carefully selected in order to make the program exciting enough.

"If Shenhai TV fired you and you came to work at Xinxin, we would be short of a spokesperson." Zhou Xin joked.

"It's a great honor, Director, did you see that I am also someone who is looking after me now?

Closer to home, the entire financial circle has been discussing a topic these days, and that is when the market value of new core lithography machines will stop.

Today is the third trading day after its listing. It surged 300% on the first day and has hit the limit for two consecutive days. The market value of Xinxin lithography machine is close to the 500 billion mark.

Now everyone no longer doubts that the market value of Xinxin lithography machine can successfully exceed the 500 billion mark, but is curious about its limit.

Some netizens believe that Xinxin has no limits, so Xinxin lithography machines also have no limits and can continue to break through the one trillion market value mark.

We and the viewers in front of the TV are very curious, what do you think? "

The launch of the new core lithography machine was so crazy that Zhou Xin made special preparations before coming, for fear that he would say the wrong thing.

If it wasn't so crazy, he originally wanted to say that the new core lithography machine could increase to one trillion, but not now, but maybe in the next ten years.

Now Zhou Xin doesn’t dare to say this, for fear that if he says this, the media will take it out of context, and only send out half of it: Zhou Xin claims that the new core lithography machine is worth one trillion.

“I think it’s been a little bit overhyped.

Xinxin is a challenger in the lithography machine market. We have Nikon, AMSL, and Canon in front of us. There are a lot of challengers that need to be overcome.

At the same time, the market size of the lithography machine industry also takes time to grow. I think that now, whether it is the market size or the new core lithography machine itself, it is not enough to support the market value of 500 billion RMB, let alone 1 trillion. .

Although it may rise to that price under an irrational market atmosphere, it does not mean that its true value matches the market value. "

Zhou Xin didn't even say that he might be able to match in the future.

Because Zhou Xin was not clever, the host was also very serious:

“Boss Xin, other entrepreneurs would like the higher the market value of their companies, the better, which also means the higher their net worth.

Why did you publicly say that Xinxin lithography machines are overvalued? "

I will update more tomorrow morning. The crow went to bed first today.