The Millennium Semiconductor Survival Guide

“Why do so many investors use real money to support new core lithography machines?

Because Zhou Xin personally participated in an interview program organized by Shenhai TV, he came out and claimed that the market value of Xinxin lithography machines had been over-hyped by the market and that there was already a serious bubble.

Zhou Xin’s public statement still did not prevent the stock price of Xinxin Lithography Machine from continuing to skyrocket. After the news was fully fermented for two days over the weekend, in just half an hour after the stock market opened on Monday, Xinxin Lithography Machine was once again killed. Pressed on the daily limit board.

There are endless comments on the Internet about Zhou Xin, who is just the richest man in the world, and what he knows about the big A. As Zhou Xin, who has been proficient in Amerikan's capital market at the end of the last century, returned to China, he was actually questioned as not knowing the capital market.

Zhou Xin, who is able to develop electronic payment software such as NewPay, which ranks first in the global market share, and can use the Internet to carry out a large number of supply chain financial innovations, was questioned by netizens as not knowing finance after Xinxin lithography machine reached its daily limit again.

This is the funniest joke I've ever heard in this century.

Of course, I don’t really want to talk about Zhou Xin. There are too many things worth talking about about him, which are beyond the scope of this blog.

I would also like to talk about why Xinxin lithography opportunities are so popular among investors, even though Zhou Xin himself stood up and said that there is a bubble in Xinxin lithography machines.

Zhou Xin’s brilliant achievements in the past, Riot Games has increased fivefold from US$8 billion when it was listed to US$40 billion now, and NewPay has doubled from its initial valuation of US$1 billion to today’s valuation of US$100 billion. A hundred times.

As for Quora, I don’t need to say more. There are many similar cases, and they are enough to prove Zhou Xin’s investment vision and management strength. Investors believe that even if it chases higher, under the leadership of Zhou Xin, the actual value of Xinxin lithography machine will gradually catch up with the market value.

What everyone loses is nothing more than time, and for many people, the loss of time is affordable.

In addition to trust in Zhou Xin, another very important point is that since the shareholding reform, A-share money making has become more and more powerful. Unlisted companies are trying every means to go public, and listed companies are refinancing in various ways.

In the past two years, some media made statistics. Since the operation of A-shares, all companies combined have created 696.5 billion in profits, but have raised nearly 1 trillion in funds from social shareholders.

Profit of 696.5 billion yuan was created and financing amounted to 967.5 billion yuan. The money-trapping behavior of enterprises has seriously affected the development of China's stock market.

What is even more exaggerated is that in the past few years after the shareholding reform, gods from all walks of life have seen that A-shares are so popular, and the market value of newly listed companies is much higher than what they were back then.

Therefore, they try every means to package their financial reports and do refinancing. This is the most typical unequal money-making behavior of A-shares, and every time it is an overdraft for the company itself.

Major shareholders can give up allotment rights or issue additional stock options, and then package the assets outside the shell and let the listed company acquire them. They can obtain the increase in the value of their net assets through refinancing. Who loses? normal consumer.

The figures for refinancing have become more and more exaggerated recently. First, there was Ping An’s additional issuance of 160 billion yuan, and then Shanghai Pudong Development Bank’s refinancing of up to 40 billion yuan. These companies believe that there is no need to repay the money in the stock market, and everyone wants it. The company’s listing is completely It's to make money.

A large number of companies engage in such behavior, and the number of money-making units has increased from tens of millions to tens of billions.

However, Xinxin does not have such worries, because Xinxin made it very clear in its prospectus that the funds raised this time can meet their three-year capital needs. After the production capacity of the immersion lithography machine increases, this part of the profit will Then invest in research and development to form a positive cycle.

Secondly, there is news from the National Natural Science Foundation of China over the weekend. The National Natural Science Foundation of China and Xinxin have jointly invested RMB 5 billion in the research and development of lithography machines. The National Natural Science Foundation of China has the platform, which is another guarantee.

The third reason is out of trust in Zhou Xin's personal integrity. If he wants to make money, there are many ways. There is no need to go to Big A to make money. Unlike other listed companies, other listed companies may only go to Big A to list. , they went overseas to list, but overseas capital markets did not recognize it, and for Zhou Xin, Nasdaq was his home base.

Therefore, it is completely reasonable for investors to be enthusiastic about new core lithography machines. "

Zhou Xin's participation in Shenhai TV's program on Friday night had no effect, because over the weekend Huaguo and Xinxin jointly established a lithography machine research and development fund with an actual investment of up to 5 billion yuan, which made investors nervous. More confidence.

"This is so awesome. This is equivalent to the state spending money to support Xinxin to continue to develop lithography machine technology. It is equivalent to the state reimbursing Xinxin for half of it!"

"Xinxin paid 2.5 billion and the state paid 2.5 billion. This is too generous. One-eighth of the funds raised went out like this."

"I just want to ask if this is reasonable. The state funds individual companies to do research and development?"

"If you have a national platform, what are you afraid of? It's all done without thinking."

"Xinxin is still kind. If it says it will invest in advanced processes, it will actually invest in advanced processes."

On the weekend when the market value of Xinxin lithography machine exceeded 500 billion, Zhang Peng went to Lujiazui on a business trip and met Chen Bo for dinner on the weekend: "Bobo, I feel a little regretful for you.

If you went to Xinxin as a Ph.D., there would definitely be an allotment of shares. If you had gone to Xinxin Lithography Machine at that time, the option incentive alone would be worth millions more now. "

Chen Bo also had regret on his face: "Stop talking, I will feel heartbroken again.

I knew that when new core lithography machines were launched, colleagues in the lithography machine business sector would definitely make a fortune, but I didn’t expect it to be so dramatic.

Five hundred billion, what is this concept? If I had gone to Xinxin Lithography Machine back then and it was listed this time, it would not be a problem for the option to be worth five million.

The success of my colleagues made me jealous. When we got off work on Friday, our leader was afraid that everyone would be mentally unbalanced, so he came over to draw cakes.

He said that Xinxin Semiconductor Design will also have the opportunity to be listed in the future, so everyone should work hard. "

That's why your own failure is terrible, but your friend's success is even more heart-wrenching.

I am afraid that my friends will have a bad life, and I am also afraid that my friends will have a good life.

This mentality is the most common.

Zhang Peng also had a similar mentality. If Chen Bo became a millionaire, he would be too much ahead of himself.

He heard Chen Bo say that Xinxin semiconductor designs might also be on the market, so he quickly asked: "Semiconductor designs will also be on the market?

Did Mr. Guan say that? "

Chen Bo sighed: "What our team leader said, what are you thinking about? It's just nonsense.

There is no shortage of money in semiconductor design, and R\u0026D investment is also limited. According to Mr. Xin’s character, it is impossible to go public.

He may think that everyone has been paying too much attention to the launch of new lithography machines recently and has no time to think about work, so he wants to make a fuss and let us focus on work.

Do you remember Wang Wenbo? "

Zhang Peng nodded: "I remember, I am also a classmate of your college. I remember that I was on the same level as you. We played together."

We just know each other, but we are not familiar with them.

Chen Bo said: "He and I entered the new core together, he went to the lithography machine, and I went to the chip design. His options should be worth five million now. This is how I estimated. If I go to the lithography machine You can get so much.

Alas, it is still too short-sighted. "

"Damn it, he actually went to the Xinxin lithography machine!" Zhang Peng felt worried.

Chen Bo knew how Zhang Peng felt, because he had the opportunity to go to the Xinxin lithography machine, and his mood would only become stronger. But seeing the other person's heartache, he didn't seem to feel so bad anymore:

"Yes, he is the only one of our PhD class who went to Xinxin Lithography Machine.

I estimate that the value of the shares he received from the doctorate brother who went to Xinxin Lithography Machine in the past two years is more than 7 million.

Five million a year is cool to think about. "

There are very few Ph.D.s nowadays, and everyone knows how much a Ph.D. can earn, but five million a year is still a very exaggerated figure.

"Forget it, let's not talk about this anymore. The more we talk about it, the more we feel upset.

I already regret going into finance. "Zhang Peng said.

Chen Bo asked: "Huh? Didn't you receive the project of Xinxin lithography machine?

You should be able to get a lot. You talked about a 7-point fee before. Xinxin raised 20 billion this time. If you allocate 7 points, it will be 1.4 billion. No matter how much it is allocated to you, it will not be less. "

Chen Bo remembered the 7 points very clearly, which made him realize how profitable finance is.

When talking about this, Zhang Peng wanted to complain: "What are you thinking about? How could your company give us a seven-point sponsorship fee?

7 points means that it is difficult for a company to go public. It is on the fine line of supervision whether it is good or not. It is a situation where it is possible to be listed or not. We come to help them with the listing, and they can give 7 points.

How can a company like Xinxin Lithography Machine, which requires strict supervision and speaks directly from the top, give a service fee of 7 points?

1 point, this industry is so complicated, 1 point is divided among securities firms, accounting firms, and law firms. There are five brokerages alone, and we are only one of them. The average cost of each one is only RMB 10,000, and the time Especially in a hurry.

At the end of last year, we said we were going to go public and it would be launched in two months. During that time, I went to bed at one or two o'clock almost every day and got up at seven o'clock the next day. The company rented a hotel for us directly next to the company.

Projects like Xinxin's are really just for the sake of fame. They have become the largest fund-raising fundraiser for a domestic private enterprise. They are done purely for the sake of fame. It's really not profitable. "

Chen Bo instantly regained his mental balance: "Xinxin is like this. We have very strict requirements on our suppliers."

"Newman, it seems we have to be prepared for a long-term battle." Lin Benjian smiled bitterly. "Zeiss must be under pressure from the EU and Americen and is unwilling to cooperate with us in EUV research and development."

In the field of EUV, lenses are still the top priority. Xinxin hopes to repeat its previous cooperation in the field of immersion lithography machines and continue to cooperate in depth with Zeiss.

But this time Zeiss refused. What the other party basically meant was: "We are happy to see new challengers emerge in the field of lithography machines. The successful development of immersion lithography machines proves that our cooperation is fruitful.

However, we cannot continue to cooperate with Xinxin in the EUV field because most of our energy in the EUV field is focused on EUV LLC. "

The CEO of Zeiss highly affirmed the cooperation between Zeiss and Xinxin over the past three years, but EUV is not something he can decide, and the EUV LLC led by Americen Energy is not something Zeiss can refuse.

This research and development project has lasted for more than ten years, and Zeiss is not willing to give up halfway and turn around to cooperate with Xinxin.

Precisely because of its deep involvement in the research and development of immersion lithography machines, Zeiss believes that the technical route of immersion lithography machines is more like a trick, successfully bypassing the limitations of basic skills through skills.

But in the field of EUV, there is no way to make tricks. Xinxin obviously cannot compete with Amerikan in terms of basic skills.

Zeiss's breach of contract is bad news for Xinxin's subsequent EUV research and development. The optical system of future EUVs will even have to be Zeiss. No other supplier can achieve this accuracy.

Not to mention the weak Chinese market for optical instruments.

This was a result Zhou Xin did not expect. He thought there would be problems with the light source because Cymer is an American company.

But there is a way to solve the problem of light sources. After Nikon is beaten to death by ASML and Xinxin, it will be good to acquire the light source manufacturers in the Neon EUVA Alliance.

As a result, Zeiss gave them a heavy blow first. Zhou Xin thought to himself, this is where the blessings and misfortunes depend. It is precisely because they are developing too fast in the field of lithography machines that Zeiss feels the pressure from the Americen Department of Energy. They cannot continue to work together.

"Uncle Lin, do you think that if Xinxin had not launched an immersion lithography machine, would Zeiss have continued to cooperate with us?"

Hu Zhengming knew what Zhou Xin was thinking. Zhou Xin felt that if they were more clumsy, they could advance the EUV faster. He interrupted:

"Newman, we can't keep it secret and not enter the production process for verification after the research and development is completed, and not put the immersion lithography machine into production.

Furthermore, what Zeiss says now is much better than what they say after we succeed. After we succeed, if Zeiss doesn’t supply us, then all the investment will be in vain.

On the contrary, now it is equivalent to starting from scratch on the lens. This is not terrible, we need to be patient. "

Lin Benjian agreed with Hu Zhengming’s point of view: “Yes, now is the time to cultivate domestic lens suppliers.

It just so happens that the ArF lithography machines produced by Xinxin can gradually let domestic suppliers make lenses. "

Zhou Xin nodded: "We have to be prepared on both sides, this is the only way.

Also, is it possible for us to acquire Nikon?

After Nikon's precision instrument department loses its market share to us, is it possible to acquire this department?

Or directly recruit the people who make objective lens systems from Nikon. "

To be honest, Zhou Xin didn't want to start from scratch. Starting from scratch meant that time would be completely stretched. He originally expected to spend five years to complete it. Without Zeiss, it would take at least ten years.

Acquiring Nikon can save two to three years.

Zhou Xin still prefers to receive the inheritance of Neon Semiconductor after the financial crisis and give them a decent funeral.

From the lens to the light source to the photoresist, everything will be easy to talk about when the financial crisis comes.

Hu Zhengming said: “It would be great to acquire it, but will Nikon sell it?

The precision instrument department is the main source of Nikon's profits. Even if the immersion lithography machine eats up part of their market share, Nikon should not give in so easily. "